Assumptions Map

Why Assumptions Map?

You might have started using the Business Model and Value Proposition Canvas to build or adjust your next business idea. What we mean here with an idea is that you assume a lot of things. You likely have no evidence yet that your idea is desired by the customer. It is not clear that you can build the product or service – it is still at this stage an idea. Now, should a potential customer want the solution and you can build or produce it, you still need to find out if the idea turns out to be profitable for you. This is called the viability hypothesis.

How do I use Assumptions Map?

The assumptions map is introduced in the Strategyzer Series book Testing Business Ideas, written by David J. Bland and Alex Osterwalder. We at Stattys recommend this book as it is full of actionable steps to test your business ideas and turn your untested ideas to validates evidence.

When you are ready to have a workshop with this assumptions map, the authors suggest having your cross-functional core team attending. What often is forgotten is that you should also invite a supporting people from legal, safety, compliance, marketing, and user research as the core team might have some blind spots in these areas.

They recommend a three-step process:

1. Identify Hypotheses

We assume you have done one or several iterations of your Business Model and Value Proposition Canvas. Show them to your team. Now you start writing each hypothesis on a Stattys Note. We recommend using different color Stattys Notes for in each area of hypothesis: desirability, feasibility, viability.

At this stage you might want to map your identified hypothesis around you existing Business Model and Value proposition Canvas.

2. Prioritize Hypothesis

Now you should place your Assumption Map next to your other canvas and start moving the identified hypothesis on Stattys Notes on to your Assumption Map.

You should place your Stattys Notes on the left side of the horizontal axis, if you already have significant evidence that supports your hypothesis. If you have little or no evidence the Stattys Notes should go to further right on the horizontal axis.

On the vertical axis you place all your hypothesis in terms of importance. You want to find our which business ideas are the most significant for you. If you place your hypothesis on the bottom of the map, it shows that you should test these hypotheses only after the more important business ideas have been tested.

3. Identify and Prioritize Riskiest Hypothesis

The main purpose of this exercise is to find out your riskiest hypothesis. After you have mapped your hypothesis in the Assumption Map, you will find them on the top right quadrant. These are the most important hypothesis with the least evidence. These business ideas you want to test first. If they fail, your whole business idea is likely to fail.

What is Assumptions Map?

Currently we offer two paper versions in size A3 and A0.

We recommend using the A3 version with Stattys Notes XS, if you are working on your own or in teams of two. This might be a good solution, if you are training others this method.

If you have the space to put the Assumptions Map A0 version on the wall and a larger team, this is the best solution for you. Remember to get some Stattys Notes S as well.

Links

How Assumptions Mapping Can Focus Your Teams On Running Experiments That Matter: here

How to get started with Assumptions Mapping. See the webinar: An Introduction to Assumptions Mapping with David J. Bland

Here you find David J. Bland’s ready-made template for Assumptions Map in Mural

Tools and resources from David J. Bland: here